Everyone is defending or discussing the Kursk invasion of Ukraine, but the real danger, in terms of overall European security strategies and parameters, lies in the city of Pokrovsk. Despite all the support that the Ukrainian army is receiving from the West, it cannot hold the eastern front against Russia’s invasion force, which numbers approximately 520,000 personnel. This situation points to Russia’s step-by-step success story rising, and it risks shattering all the strategies that Europe has been displaying and executing since the end of February 2022.
As a result, we are facing two major risks as humanity. I’m saying this now, so everyone should listen carefully. One scenario involves a victorious Putin, with a gradually weakening Europe starting from Eastern Europe, especially if Donald Trump is elected as the U.S. president, leading to an abandoned Europe and increased aggression. The other scenario involves the alliance between Europe and America, along with Japan and Canada, excluding Turkey, taking a significant risk of engaging in a massive war to stop Russia directly. Things are moving in that direction. Do you think the Russian army will remain silent and wait for the outcome after crossing the Pokrovsk-Kramatorsk line and slowly heading towards Kyiv on that highway? No, it won’t. After showing extraordinary military unity against Russia for so long, NATO’s European and North American wings won’t stay silent and just wait.
Therefore, I hope Russia knows where to stop after taking Pokrovsk. In a warzone, knowing where to stop is as crucial as winning a front. If you cross that dangerous front, you may not have clear information about the force you will face, and that force could drag you into a massive war that you never expected. The Battle of Pokrovsk is now considered a separate chapter in the history of the 21st century, much like the defense of Stalingrad and similar battles. Why? Because when Russia’s massive offensive and Ukraine’s determined resistance reach a conclusion, whether for Russia or Ukraine, the front, the area, and the character of the war will shift dramatically, and we still don’t know what types of weapons will be used or against whom.
The military commander of Pokrovsk, Serhiy Dobak, announced that Russian forces are now within 10 kilometers of the city. “We continue to evacuate civilians. On average, 600 people are transferred daily to a secure area of the country. We aim to evacuate the entire population within two weeks,” said the regional governor. Curfews are being strictly enforced in Pokrovsk and surrounding settlements. “I acknowledge that the situation in this area is extremely dangerous,” he added. In the next 2-3 weeks, if things continue as they are, Ukraine may lose Pokrovsk, and Russia will have gained a new maneuvering space on the road to Kyiv.
General Gintsy, Chief of General Staff, said, “Everything necessary is being done to defend Pokrovsk. We have faced a massive attack and are simultaneously fighting hard to prevent the city of Toretsk in the east from falling into enemy hands.” You understand what I’m saying, right? The development is heading towards Toretsk. The city of New York, near Toretsk, fell into Russian hands as of yesterday, and they held a flag-raising ceremony. This town, which is actually a city, is being occupied, and the Russians are heading towards Kyiv.
Currently, Ukraine, with its existing personnel and military assets, cannot stop the Russian army on the Donetsk-Donbas front. Russia’s lack of concern for the occupation of Crimea and its internal absorption of that situation is the reason why Russia is not returning to Crimea. Russia is saying, “Leave it; we lost it, we’ll take it back someday, but first, I’ll take Donbas,” and is preparing to drag Ukraine into peace negotiations that Ukraine won’t like. This could be a way out for the Western capitals, which are showing considerable fatigue from this war. Both Germany and the UK have shown signs of war-weariness. Recently, Zelensky made a statement saying there was a significant slowdown in aid from the UK. British Prime Minister Starmer responded by saying, “No, there’s no such thing. We stand firmly behind Ukraine to the end, and there’s no slowdown.” This debate alone is important because it shows that Western capitals are growing tired of this war. Just two days ago, the German parliament discussed how they had no money left for Ukraine. Then Scholz and Pistorius came out and said, “No, no, don’t misunderstand, we’re doing what’s necessary.”
So, things are getting a bit chaotic. Dimitro Lov, the military spokesperson for Ukraine’s Tavriya group, said there was a noticeable decrease in Russian attacks on the southern front, particularly around Zaporizhzhia. He added that it was not yet clear whether this was due to the Kursk operation. It’s not because of Kursk; it’s because Russia has moved all its forces to the eastern front. There is no Russian military presence in Kursk. Meanwhile, in Ukraine, there was a drone strike on Proletarsk in the Rostov region, hitting an oil refinery, which is still burning.